Pendulum swing

Social pendulum swung. “People become conservative”.

They are ready to support alt-right movements and autocrats who peddle fear, xenophobia, conspiracy theories. We do act for a good of big tech only. But not that long ago it looked different. We seriously took employee and human rights, democracy, truly believe in #MeToo, need to repair historic injustice.

I like to see if any pattern emerges. Of course we see the autocracy mechanisms, which historically we connected with great villains like Stalin or Hitler, or in our life with African dictators.

When I read G.Dillard “Echoes of Rage” – about parallels of todays tech capitalism to American Gilded Age (https://medium.com/@worldhistory/echoes-of-rage-2315f17f387f) I started to look back and wonder – when thigs have changes?

When society has given power to the far-right? When we have crossed the red line?

 

There could be several candidates for the year of change:

 

2014? – The year of Putin’s aggression on Ukraine, Modi’s election as prime minister, Erdogan becoming Turkey president, Cameron announcing Brexit referendum and Orban moving into full authoritarian mode?

Or 2016? – The year when first mass-use of Internet false claims and Russia-funded engineering brought both Brexit and Trump victory? Erdogan staged “coup” to cement his position. And most important so called “social media” [I don’t know why we call “social” something that is owned and steered by word richest businesses and where most of the content is funded by businesses and politicians] took ownership of the news agenda.

Or 2020? – The year of pandemic. When conspiracy theories with big tech and American backing started to rule the communication?

 

2011 – year of liberal triumph

Personally, looking from a perspective of an East European country, I would draw a line much earlier – in 2011.

 

At a face value 2010/11 may be seen as years of liberal triumph:

• World has gone through 2008 financial crisis mostly unshattered (I will come back to that claim later).
• 2010 Arab spring removing sclerotic rulers in Tunisia and Egypt has brought hope for a big positive change in the Middle East.
• An attempt to overthrow Assad regime has started, and there were high hopes for a swift change.
• Thailand and Australia got first female prime ministers, Brazil got its first female president. Merkel was an undisputed queen of Germany.
• Liberals won elections in Hungary, ending quite corrupt socialist rule.
• In Poland liberals won elections for a second time, the first party to achieve such success.
• UK received its first Liberal-Conservative coalition ending years of Labour rule.
• Berlusconi lost power in Italy.
• In Turkey, Erdogan has made some changes apparently to democratize society and end decades-old internal conflict with Kurds.
• Even in Russia, hopes for democratic progress were running high. Medvedev, who peacefully come after Putin, was perceived as a modernizer. Russian economy stabilized by Kurdin was doing well.

People were upbeat, and it seemed that there is only one direction possible. More freedom, more democracy, liberal doctrine was dominant.

 

Writing on the wall

 

However, at that very stage of triumph the liberals started to destroy what they have achieved. They laid foundations for the future alt-right success. And first signs of alt-right pendulum swing become visible.

Three major Liberal actions contributed to that:

1. Handling of Arab Spring failure
2. Dealing with financial crisis legacy
3. Taking onboard right-wing agenda

 

Nightmarish outcome of the Arab spring

 

Rather than bringing peace and democracy the Arab spring brought disaster.

In Egypt, very soon, Muslim Brotherhood started its star-like rise to power. And in 2012 it tried to turn Egypt to theocracy. It took one more year and thousands were killed before military intervention stopped it.

The Syrian uprise turned into wholesale war, ruining the country and bringing ISIS on the verge of power in Syria and Iraq.

Ill-fated overthrow of Gaddafi, engineered by British and French, in Libya turned the already poor country into the bloodbath. Libya remains a failed state, ruled by gangs and it’s conflicts are spreading south.

 

What followed was a deluge of immigrants on Europe. That was only exacerbated after ISIS and Russia-engineered wars and coups in West Africa, Nepal earthquake, recent fall of Afghanistan, Ethiopian war, drought in Central Asia.

The arrival of waves of refugees changed Europe. Some people put the blame on Angela Merkel inviting immigrants. She was driven by her Christian conviction that we need to help those people, but she hardly expected more than million people turning up. Despite her famous claim from “wir haben so vieles geschafft — wir schaffen das” (we have achieved so much, we will manage that), the uncontrolled refugee waves has given the far-right a formal excuse to visibly pursue xenophobic policies in Austria, France, Greece, Italy, Hungary, Poland, and of course in Germany.

Global crisis poisonous legacy

The stopping of global financial crisis came at tremendous price. That price was mostly paid by average taxpayers. Liberals let the banks to privatize profits and nationalize cost. Society footed the bill.

People lost jobs en masse. In Eastern Europe, which buffered crisis slightly better, the price was a big fall of local currencies (40%) and lowering of salaries. Many of aspiring middle class and blue collar workers agreed to 10-20% pay cuts to stem the redundancies.

At the same time banks enjoyed their fat bonuses funded from public money. The public was left with the cost.

The basic trust in the government as taking care of its voters was broken.

Global crisis poisonous legacy – Swiss Franc

Another impact, quite specific to Europe, was felt because of “Swiss Franc Mortgages”

These were exchange-rate pegged mortgages, to which many European banks duped their customers. The so-called Swiss franc credits were on the end decided illegal by European Tribunal. They were not loans but foremost exchange rate bets. However that happened only 10 years later.

Middle class was assured by bankers about very low risk, only to find their mortgage repayments doubling and the principal doubled too.

Liberal governments washed their hands off, despite obvious irregularities. More – they waged propaganda calling debtors “greedy” (they wanted to pay less) “stupid” (they have not read small print) and incited less-well-off citizens against those mortgage holders “they want you to pay for their luxury apartments”.

In Poland almost half of middle class was affected. It suffocated demand for services and in hospitality industry. Same happened large scale in Croatia, Austria, Portugal and some other countries.

 

Similar situation was in Russia with dollar-denominated mortgages.

Liberal way out of crisis

The government wanted to combat crisis with increased infrastructure spending. But that (at least in Poland) created only more resentment. People from countryside were feeling left out, even if billions were spent on rural water, savage or health services. They only seen motorways “for the city dwellers”.

On the end the way Liberals handled financial crisis, disenfranchised their own constituency, while not attracting any new supporters.

That liberal approach contributed to building permanent rifts in the society with “US” people from “red wall” (UK), “rust belt” (USA) or small towns / villages (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Turkey) seen themselves as exploited by “THEM” – the big city middle class. Whereas both us and them paid the price and true profits were pocketed by financial services.

 

How the Liberals fallen in love with right-wing?

 

I will give four examples of things that happen in 2011 or just afterwards:

UK

That is the example best know to all. On their mission to punish the Labour, Liberal-Democrats formed a government with Conservatives [it is worth mentioning that conservatives until 2009 were members of EPP in European Parliament – a Liberal-Christian Democrat alliance].

The Cameron-Clegg cabinet quickly embarked on right wing course. Lot of socially damaging policies were implemented. And of course seeing their support dwindling the government started to drum up the anti-EU and foremost anti-immigrant agenda. That “protect Britain’ propaganda was ever present in all wings of the British media.

As a formed UK resident I watched that in disbelief. The whole British economy was grounded on immigrant work and Britain being a doorway to Europe.

We know the result – Cameron announcing Brexit referendum. Fueling incredible level of xenophobia, millions of working Europeans leaving UK and ensuing crisis. And of course emergence of Nigel Farage, who is now about to eat Conservatives for lunch.

 

Poland

It is a little less-known story.

In 2011 Tusk won election and together with a more secular and progressive wing formed by his party members [Palikots Movement – from the leader name] they got almost 60% seats. Palikots Movement was an emanation of social change – it introduced the very first Transgender MP in Europe and openly Gay MPs.

However Tusk decided to form coalition with conservative Pheasants Party and pursue right-wing policies. He nominated right conservative as Justice Minister – and that guy made sure that none of progressive laws was passed and protection was extended to his nationalist cronies.

Any promises or school and state secularization (religion is funded by state in Poland), abortion rights and plain woman rights were  abandoned. Government representatives openly ridiculed progressive changes. They were pointing to all failed initiatives and laughed that progressives “have not fulfilled their promises”.

On the government orders the police stood watching when on the 2011 Independence Day in Warsaw nationalist attacked people enjoying cultural events.

When in 2013 nationalist burned the rainbow in one of central squared, Liberal mayor of Warsaw response was, that next year she will lead nationalist demonstrations. Of course she did not – she was really hated by them.

Tusk Liberals even were blocking Stambul Convention until very last minute as “not compatible with family values”.

In 2014 Liberals started anti-immigrant hysteria with the government refusing to accept 20000 Syrian emigrants (in a country of 40 million people). They brought such “national security” into election agenda, which they pathetically lost, bringing right-wing [Law and Justice party] government.

 

Hungary

In Hungary quickly after coming to power Orban started to change the law to enshrine policies that would keep him in power forever. In 2012 he amended constitution.. He crushed Constitutional Court, blocked free press and throttled academia independence.

What was interesting – why EU has not reacted to his lofty lawbreaking? As a  Liberal and “The Hammer of Left”, he enjoyed full protection of Tusk and Clegg-Cameron government therefore any legal attempts to punish him or Hungary were blocked by Poland and the UK.

Personally I think copying Orban was kind of Liberal dream at that time.

Decade later, not needing a liberal mantle anymore, Orban openly sided with Putin and most conservative movements. For him personally, the gamble with right-wing paid off.

 

 

Russia

 

In Russia, summer 2011, Medvedev fired Kudrin, ending his apparent flirt with liberals. Three months later he supported Putin presidential candidacy and fully backed crushing of popular anti-Putin protests in 2012.
That was the end of Medvedev short flirt with Liberals.

 

In Turkey Erdogan has also abandoned any liberal posing and quickly consolidated power.

Same suit was followed by Netanyahu in Israel.

 

How it backfired?

Why the liberals turned to xenophobia and became antireformers?

Because their chief enemy, at that time, was the Left.

Left has taken over progressive agenda (LGBT+, women rights, secularism, tolerance) so Liberals wanted something different. So they found the enemy and someone to blame for crisis effects – rather than people turning against big corporate, their sponsor at that time. {I see a good analogy to 1930’}

They did succeed in crushing Left. Today we have only handful true social democratic parties of any influence.

Big business, at that time supporting the Liberals, also didn’t like the social change:

• Who has mention taxing financial institutions? They should foot the global crisis bill? Why, they had done nothing wrong?
• Tobin tax? That would make everything more expensive for you.
• Employee rights? Globally? Sorry sir, you must be joking.
• Equal pay for woman and people of color? We can’t afford it.
• Maybe you like us to offer immigrants regular jobs, rather than paying them few cents under the table?
• C-Level pay control? That will break our business. No-one wants to be a CEO for just 10 times corporate average.
• Climate crisis? You want us to stop doing business here and give it all to China!

Corporate world needed a scapegoat to divert attention from the financial moguls. Immigrants were the perfect one. “Our people are worse off because we have to support immigrants, who take our jobs, need more policing, drive house prices up and spread diseases”. Same applied for “feminist and LGBT destroying our families”.

That anti progressive agenda was furthered by the business when after 2016they joined forces with far-right.

 

Why the Liberals peddling right-wing propaganda was so important?

Prior to that, immigrant fearmongering, or anti-feminism, was the domain of the parties that were universally considered populist, dirty, or plainly stupid. Liberals brought xenophobia mainstream.

It was no longer considered faux pas to “warn against Islamic invasion”, “point to feminism excess” or to tout “national values”.

Liberals confirmed “the far-right has been right, we have to protect our nation”.

Through the doors once open, crowded conservative media and those looking for publicity.

And mi-2010’ that publicity was given to the right-wingers in spades.

 

Of course, the Liberal plan to steal the far-right agenda failed. Why should one select those pretending, when you can vote for the real McCoy?!

 

It is interesting that Liberals have learned nothing from their subsequent 2014/16 failure. When brought back to power, promising change, they reverted to the same right-wing rhetoric.

Notable example is the Polish Liberal Donald Tusk, who again in 2024 fueled anti-immigrant sentiments, hoping to help his party win presidential election. His “secure bet” candidate lost. But he managed to bring a very far right candidate from nothing – to close to 6% votes and to cement the right grip of the society.

 

Eventually “the society became conservative”. Nope. It was led that way.

 

The rest in modern history.

 

PS. I don’t blame squarely Liberals for the alt-wing swing.
There were of course other forces: the conservative media, journalists who pumped alt-right themes in search of hot topics, technology tycoons that supported right wing, inability of the modern law system to deal with wanton law breaking by would-be tyrants, and yes, some stupid moves on the progressive side.
But this story is about Liberals and the 2011 change.